Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-23T00:14:21

The high energy electron flux appears to have reached a stable equilibrium in the wake of the high speed stream from coronal hole 59, and the current diurnal oscillation peaking around the Moderate-High flux boundary is likely to represent the peak for this event. Because of the expected lack of further fast wind regimes in the four days, this may also represent the peak flux for the whole forecast period.

However, the forecast uncertainty is significantly increased and complicated by the presence of (potentially) numerous transients, and as such confidence falls off sharply towards midweek. The forecast may therefore prove volatile into the new week, with the nearer-term more reliably 'quiet' in terms of electron flux and fluence.