Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-22T00:14:08

The high energy electron flux showed a modest rise through the past 24 hours as a result of the current high speed stream. Given that geomagnetic activity has been relatively subdued, it is now considered possible that the current diurnal peak in flux may represent the peak of the current coronal hole's capabilities, with the diurnal oscillation peaking just shy of High flux henceforth, perhaps with gradual erosion towards midweek as a slow solar wind establishes.

There is now considered a Slight Chance of 24-hour integrated high energy electron fluence breaching the Active threshold, probably peaking on day two, Sunday 23 May. MOSWOC REFM is currently considered too reactive to the high speed stream, and something more akin to the sub-Active peak seen on last rotation is preferred.