MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-15T00:15:18
The trend in high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be level over the coming UTC weekend, i.e. persisting at mostly Normal Background levels. The trend becomes less clear into the new working week, with a potential coronal hole (CH57/-) and at least one transient in the forecast. The trend is likely to be upwards by this time, with perhaps a Chance of exceeding the 24-hour integrated Active threshold on day four, Tuesday 18 May.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-05-15T00:15:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 5% |