Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-14T00:16:13

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly background levels during the start of the coming working week, with little response expected from the subdued high speed stream from CH67/+. Forthcoming CH68/- is a more substantial feature, and poses more of a risk of prompting Active 24-hour integrated fluence once initial geomagnetic activity wanes on day four (Thursday 17 June).

On last rotation, CH68's predecessor prompted electron flux to rise around an order of magnitude from Normal Background to mainly Moderate flux, with diurnal peaks around the High threshold, with similar expected on this occasion, making Active fluence relatively unlikely. Both REFM and MOSWOC's recurrence-persistence model make nods in a upward-trending direction for fluence, albeit again likely falling short of Active.