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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-07T00:15:40

After Active geomagnetic activity from anticipated high speed stream connection on day 2 (8th) subsides, the current background levels of high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) are likely to become moderate to high by day 3 (9th). Electron counts are likely to be higher from recurrent coronal hole 65 this time around due to its increased size.  

Electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold as indicated by current REFM data, although a rising trend is likely from day 3.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2021-06-07T00:15:40
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 10% 1%
Day 4 20% 1%