MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-07T00:17:25
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is expected to persist at mostly Normal Background levels, perhaps reaching Moderate levels at the diurnal peaks. The corresponding fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
The minor coronal hole (CH74/+) may arrive later on Day 3 (09 July), or more likely on Day 4 (10 July), but any (likely minor) influence from this will be towards the end of the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-07-07T00:17:25 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |