MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-06T00:11:52
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to persist at Moderate to High (greater than 1000 pfu) levels, apart for probably temporarily decreasing to Low levels when slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity occurs in association with the arrival of the CIR and the high speed stream from CH83 and perhaps CH84.
The corresponding 24 hour fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8) threshold today and tomorrow, then is likely to exceed the Active threshold from day 3 (8th)
REFM is currently giving poor guidance, with the forecast fluence significantly below the current observed values. The trend of the REFM model is also to decrease the fluence levels for days 2 and 3, while the opposite is expected to occur.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-08-06T00:11:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |