Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-07T00:02:34

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to be at Moderate to Background levels for much of the period, but may peak near or just above High (greater than 1000 pfu) levels on the diurnal maximum. 

The corresponding 24 hour fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8) threshold through the period, but perhaps with a slight rising trend more favoured, compared to the falling trend shown by the model.

REFM is now close to the most recent observed values, and forecasts fluence levels remaining below the Active threshold, which looks good guidance. However, absolute forecast values beyond day 1 look too low at present.