MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-14T00:15:36
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at Background to Moderate levels in this period. Whilst a very slight rise in 24-hour electron fluence is possible through the period, Active fluence is highly unlikely to be attained and should remain well below threshold. Therefore the current REFM and recurrence-persistence model output are considered to be giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-08-14T00:15:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |