Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-15T00:11:51

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at Background to Moderate levels in this period. With no significant wind speed increases expected through the next four days, electron flux levels are unlikely to rise significantly.

Although REFM is forecasting a rise in fluence levels over the next 3 days, this is thought to be due to the higher wind speeds on the previous rotation which are input into the model. As these wind speeds are not expected this time around, fluence levels are expected to remain fairly steady, well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. The recurrence-persistence model is keeping the probability of reaching the Active threshold very low.