MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-08T00:02:44
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to be at Moderate to Background levels for much of the period, but may peak near or just above High (greater than 1000 pfu) level on the diurnal maximum.
The corresponding 24 hour fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8) threshold through the period, but perhaps with a slight rising trend more favoured if any further coronal influences occur.
REFM output confirms the likelihood of fluence levels remaining below the active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-08-08T00:02:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |