Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-07T00:22:25

The high energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to mainly occupy Moderate levels, perhaps with further diurnal High peaks. The onset of any coronal hole fast wind may drop out observed values briefly, before a re-enhancement is observed at GEO as any slight geomagnetic activity falls. This is considered most likely with the more favoured connection to the southern extension of the northern polar crown mooted for midweek, but with low confidence.

Electron fluence values are below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu), and are expected to remain below with a flat or slow declining trend. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving good guidance, but with the notable caveat of up to two transients in the forecast that are likely to disrupt this trend later in the coming working week.