Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-06T00:26:31

The high energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to be moderate to background. The onset of any coronal hole fast wind may drop out observed values briefly, before a re-enhancement is observed at GEO as any slight geomagnetic activity falls. This most likely with the more favoured connection to the southern extensions of the northern polar crown during Days 2 and 3 (7th and 8th). Any enhancement is currently expected to remain fairly limited however, with only brief diurnal peaks at Moderate to High.

Electron fluence values are below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu), and are expected to remain below with a flat or slow declining trend. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving good guidance.