Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-13T00:14:18

The high energy electron flux, as measured by GOES-16, has mostly remained at background levels, barely reaching moderate levels at the diurnal maximum. With enhanced geomagnetic activity expected on days 1 and 2 (13-14th), the electron flux is unlikely to rise significantly at first. However a more sustained increase in counts is then possible from day 3 (15th) as the high speed stream from coronal hole 99 begins to wane, perhaps reaching high levels during the diurnal maximum.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, albeit with a rising trend on Days 1 to 3 (13th to 15th). A similar pattern was observed on the last rotation although the electron count never reached high levels. This is also confirmed by the latest REFM output and the Recurrence-Persistence Electron forecast, both considered to provide good guidance.