MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-20T00:01:55
High energy electron flux and fluence are both currently at low levels. CH04 and CH02 are the main likely drivers of increased electron populations in the period, however neither are expected to increase fluence levels sufficiently to approach the Active threshold.
MOSWOC REFM and the Recurrence-Persistence model both keep fluence levels well below the Active threshold, and are considered reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-09-20T00:01:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |