MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-21T00:21:36
The current observed weakly waning tendency in the observed electron flux at Earth is expected to continue through the period, with no transients in the forecast and no significant persistent features expected.
MOSWOC REFM output and the Recurrence-Persistence Model both support this trend, with REFM showing a forecast decay of fluence to around 1e6 in the next three days, while R-P shows probabilities no higher than 8% for the active threshold to be breached.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-08-21T00:21:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |