MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-28T00:12:20
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at mainly Nominal Background levels.
On the previous rotation the Van Allen belts did respond to a notable coronal hole enhancement, but still remained below high levels. As any enhancement on this rotation currently appears to be muted in comparison, any similar electron enhancement is likely to be even more limited. However, once the magnetic cloud from the 23 August CME passes, the electron flux may increase to mainly Moderate levels in response, with a slight chance of briefly reaching High at diurnal peak during days 2 to 4 (29th to 31st).
The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to rise accordingly, whilst remaining well below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-08-28T00:12:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |