MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-22T00:29:30
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as measured by GOES-16 at GEO, is expected to persist at mainly background to moderate levels through the period. There are no notable sources of enhancement currently expected, although an increase to more persistent moderate is possible from day 3 (24th) onward due to the potential glancing blow of the CME on day 2 (23rd).
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain at background levels. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-07-22T00:29:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |