Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-21T00:11:47

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to fluctuate daily between Background and Moderate levels through this period. The current elevated wind speeds may just be enough to drive a slight increase in electron levels, but this is unlikely to reach High levels.

Corresponding 24-hour integrated electron fluence is therefore not expected to reach Active levels (above 1e8 integrated pfu), although a slight increasing trend is likely. The REFM model keeps electron fluence levels well below Active, with the recurrence-persistence model also having very low probability of reaching Active.