MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-20T00:17:01
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to fluctuate daily between Background and Moderate levels through this period.
Corresponding 24-hour integrated electron fluence is therefore not expected to reach Active levels (above 1e8 integrated pfu). This sentiment is confirmed by the latest REFM output and the recurrent-Persistence Electron Forecast Model.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-07-20T00:17:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |