MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-19T00:19:04
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to continue varying diurnally between background and moderate levels . A more marked decrease is then possible due to any elevated geomagnetic activity on day 3 (20 August).
The corresponding electron fluence is below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is expected to remain at this level, with REFM currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-08-19T00:19:04 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |