Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-26T00:27:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at mainly background levels. On the previous rotation the Van Allen belts did respond to a notable coronal hole enhancement, but still remained below high levels. As any enhancement on this rotation currently appears to be muted in comparison, any similar electron enhancement is likely to be even more limited. However, once the anticipated CME passes, either late day 1 (26th) or more likely early day 2 (27th), the electron flux may increase to mainly moderate levels in response, with a slight chance of briefly reaching high at diurnal peak by day 4 (29th).

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to rise accordingly whilst remaining well below the Active threshold. This is supported by REFM which has a slight rise signaled, and hence is currently giving good guidance.