Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-25T00:29:37

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at background, and expected to remain at this level until day the arrival of the fast wind of CH05 and potential CMEs from midday day 2 (26th). Thereafter the flux forecast becomes very uncertain, with a notable enhancement possible, but low confidence, and likely often limited at GEO due to compression of the Van Allen belts. 

The 24 hour associated fluence will see a delayed response likely only rising through day 3 to be likely above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through day 4. REFM is currently over-estimating fluence values, but is indicating fluence staying below the Active threshold. Confidence in the model signal then falls to very low day 2 onward, as this doesn't take account of either CME arrivals of the larger and more notable coronal hole (CH05) on this rotation.