Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-14T00:12:39

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels are expected to increase later on day 1 (14th) following the establishment of the high speed stream from coronal hole 76. On the last rotation, the flux rapidly increased to high (1e3 pfu) levels and sustained this level for five days before subsiding, with a similar pattern possible on this rotation.

Electron fluence followed a similar pattern to the flux on the last rotation, with the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level being reached as the flux reached high levels, and then remaining at this level for 5 days. The MOSWOC REFM model is reluctant to suggest a definite increase, however using persistence there is a chance that the Active threshold will be exceeded from day 2 onwards.