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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-15T00:12:06

With any significant wind speed increases from coronal hole 76 now increasingly unlikely, and no further significant enhancements expected through the following few days, high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels are now expected to remain at background to moderate levels through this period.

On the previous rotation, electron fluence reached active levels (above 1e8 integrated pfu) as electron counts increased significantly under the influence of CH76's high speed stream. However, this is now considered unlikely through this forecast period.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2021-07-15T00:12:06
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 1% 1%
Day 4 1% 1%