MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-15T00:29:37
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly background levels. Forthcoming CH69/- and CH68/- bring a substantial area, and pose a risk of prompting Active 24-hour integrated fluence once initial geomagnetic activity wanes on Day 3 (17 June).
On the last rotation, CH69/68's predecessor prompted electron flux to rise around an order of magnitude from Normal Background to mainly Moderate flux, with diurnal peaks around the High threshold, with similar expected on this occasion, making Active fluence relatively unlikely. Both REFM and MOSWOC's recurrence-persistence model show an upward-trending direction for fluence, albeit again likely falling short of Active.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-06-15T00:29:37 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |