MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-22T00:15:35
There has been a faster-than-expected ebbing of the current high energy electron flux in the current ambient solar wind, such that the chances of 24-hour integrated electron fluence being maintained beyond the first half of day one now look unlikely. This attenuating trend should accelerate around midweek with the advent of any coronal hole activity, while the end-week degree of recovery is likely to be less strong than levels seen at present.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-06-22T00:15:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |