Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-21T00:16:10

High energy electron flux has settled on a diurnal oscillation entirely within High levels. With little now to perturb this, a very gradual ebbing away may start to take place, but probably not falling below until the advent of any further coronal hole geomagnetic activity, with this perhaps occurring at the end of day three, Wednesday 23 June.

Active 24-hour integrated fluence should therefore remain Active until at least midweek, with levels becoming less certain thereafter, but more likely than not at least temporarily falling at GOES 16 as CH70 or 71 make themselves felt. The degree of recovery is likely to be less strong than levels seen at present to end the current week.