MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-23T00:15:50
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is likely to be at background to moderate levels through much of the period, although possibly reaching high levels through the diurnal cycle from day 2 (24th), after anticipated connection to the faster winds of coronal hole 70 in the northwest.
Associated electron fluence is likely to remain below the active threshold, although with a more general rising trend possible by day 3 (25th) as electron counts increase.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-06-23T00:15:50 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |