MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-23T00:15:00
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to vary between background and moderate levels over the next four days, with no sustained sources of electron forecast. There is a chance of more sustained moderate flux levels from tomorrow onward due to the potential effects of the glancing CME.
Electron fluence values are expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. The Met Office REFM model is therefore considered to be offering good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-07-23T00:15:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |