Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-16T00:05:44

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected start at background levels, but may rise later on day 1 into day 2 due to the ongoing High Speed Stream. There is a chance that the High 1000pfu threshold may be reached during the diurnal maximum on days 2 and 3. The corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, although may rise towards the threshold on Days 3 and 4, with a slight chance of reaching Active 1e8 integrated pfu. This is suggested by the REFM forecast. The 27-day recurrence probably gives better guidance with a rise towards the threshold by Day 4, although on the previous rotation the fluence remained just below the threshold. The recurrence-persistence model has a rising, but low probability trend by the end of the period.