MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-21T00:18:41
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background levels. Despite the potential solar wind enhancements over the next four days and the weak Earth-directed CME on the 23rd, the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain rather muted, so much so that the electron population is unlikely to increase sufficiently to build the fluence to the Active threshold. The latest REFM output is considered to give good guidance, with perhaps a slight rising trend observed on days 3 and 4 (23rd & 24th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-09-21T00:18:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |