Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-21T00:12:30

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels. The recent arrival of a high speed stream from CH13/- is likely to keep electron levels suppressed through the early part of the period as the radiation belts are likely to be compressed from the faster solar wind speeds. However, this increase in wind speeds may drive an increase in flux levels, which may then give a flux increase at GEO later in the period. Flux levels rose on the previous rotation, but not above the High (1000 pfu) level.

The electron fluence is currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on a steady trend. Fluence levels may rise through this period as the high speed stream effects wane. There is a chance of seeing fluence above the Active threshold by the end of Day 4 (24 Oct). REFM is not currently indicating an increase in fluence levels, but this may be due to the lack of response on the previous rotation and is potentially somewhat under-estimating fluence levels.