Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-28T00:16:41

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at normal background levels. There is a low confidence increase in wind speeds possible on Days 2 or 3 (28-29 Oct), but it is uncertain whether this will be enough to drive a significant increase in flux levels. Any response if it does occur is likely to be into Day 4 (30 Oct), although this may be thwarted by a glancing blow from a CME which left the sun early on the 27th Oct. Associated fluence is unlikely to breach the Active threshold in this period, with just a very slight chance by the end of Day 4.