MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-29T00:21:52
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background levels and expected to remain at this or moderate levels for much of the period. The expected arrival of the large CME on the 30th may act to initially suppress the Van Allen radiation belts before likely returning towards a prevailing state at the end of the forecast period. This means that an increase in electron flux is expected on Day 3 (31st) and Day 4 (1st November), with a chance of reaching the Active electron (1e8 integrated pfu) fluence threshold on Day 4. REFM is expected to give good guidance until the 30th with the anticipated arrival of the large CME at Earth.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-10-29T00:21:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |