Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-28T00:32:27

The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 reached Moderate levels at the diurnal peak on 27 Nov, which was down from the previous day. Electron levels are expected to decline further with the recent CME arrival likely causing a temporary suppression in the flux. Once any initial geomagnetic disturbance has receded, there is the potential for Moderate to High electron flux levels to return from Day 2 (29 Nov) onward. However, current indications suggest the wind speeds are not that high associated with the CME, so may be insufficient to drive any significant flux increase.

The associated electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the period. It is likely there will be a small period of decline, before fluence levels may possibly rise in response to the CME arrival, however this is low confidence.