Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-27T00:29:48

Integrated fluence levels have increased over the past 12 hours however mechanisms for increasing high energy electron flux further are now expected to reduce, with Earth having finally exited the high speed stream from coronal hole 20. As stated, any influence from succeeding coronal hole 22 is expected to be minor if present, and unlikely to prove capable to generate Active 24-hour integrated fluence. The biggest uncertainty in the period is therefore any response to the 24 or 26 November CMEs arrival from late day 1 (27th) to day 3 (29th) - with these increasing uncertainty in electron levels into the next working week. Due to this uncertainty there remains a slight chance that the 1e8 Active integrated fluence level will be breached through the period.