MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-04T00:27:14
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently Moderate having been High for long periods during the UTC day on Friday. Whilst some drop out in values is anticipated with the arrival of the fast wind of CH27/CH28 early on day 1 (4th), values will likely recover by day 2 (5th) to give a further period of mainly High values.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu), and despite flux levels having dropped out, fluence is expected to return above the Active level during day 1 (4th). Confidence for Active fluence is then lower day 2 onward, however this remains likely, due to flux levels being forecast to recover to be mainly high from day 2 (5th) onward. REFM is suggesting a downward trend from day 2 (5th) but reducing values too quickly beyond this period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-12-04T00:27:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |