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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-11T00:27:27

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16, is currently ranging between Moderate and High, with a slightly increased average relative to past days across the diurnal cycle. While the magnitude of any further increases should be very modest, its proximity to the Active fleunce threshold makes this relatively more likely to be achieved until any more decisive geomagnetic activity arrives, probably from CH32/- on day four.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2021-12-11T00:27:27
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 30% 1%
Day 2 30% 1%
Day 3 20% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%