Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-10T00:25:58

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at Moderate levels, but did rise through the diurnal cycle to reach high levels (1000pfu)  yesterday. The same is likely to occur today if the two forecast CME's do not arrive.  A slight increase in high energy electron values may occur during Days 3 and 4 (12th and 13th), with any CME associated geomagnetic activity subsiding, given the anticipated arrival of CH30.

Fluence levels are expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the forecast period, but with a gradually increasing trend. This anticipated trend is in contrast to the guidance offered by the Met Office REFM model, which is starting today with observed values higher than the model predicts. Therefore confidence is low with the REFM prediction.