Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-09T00:37:40

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is at Moderate levels and is expected to remain at this level during much of if not all of Day 1 (9th). There is the potential for a dropout in electron flux from any geomagnetic activity associated with CMEs and/or CH29 high speed stream arrival either later on Day 1 or during Day 2 (10th). This may be followed by an increase in values on Day 3 and 4 (11th and 12th), as geomagnetic activity subsides, but this carries low confidence and is expected to be small if there is a response, given the anticipated arrival of CH30.

Fluence levels are expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the forecast period. 

REFM output is thought to be offering good guidance in a general downtrend in electron fluence early in the period, though may fall away sooner in response to any CME arrivals on Day 1 or 2, that do not factor into the forecast values.