Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-02T00:16:52

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO has been at background to moderate levels during the last 24 hours, but is now on a rising trend after connection to a faster stream of solar wind. Another potential enhancement is likely to be from the faster wind of CH27 later on day 1 (2nd), with an increasing likelihood of diurnal maximums reaching high levels for much of the rest of the period. 

The associated 24 hour integrated fluence is also expected to show a rising trend, with an increasing likelihood of reaching the Active threshold through the period. This is supported by REFM which also reflects this trend, and forecasts Active fluence levels perhaps by day 3 (4th).