Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-30T12:18:59

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO has been at background to moderate levels during the last 24 hours, and is expected to continue at similar levels until a connection to a faster stream of solar wind occurs. The next potential enhancement is likely to be from the faster wind of CH26 on day 2 (1st), but more likely from potential connection with CH27 from day 3 (2nd) possibly increasing diurnal maximum  levels to High by the end of the period, however confidence is low. Other enhancements to the solar wind on days 1-2 are currently not expected to lead to high flux levels being observed. 

With flux likely to remain below the High level until later in the period, the associated 24 hour integrated fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with only a slight chance of rising above at the end of the period. This is supported by REFM which maintains fluence levels at well below the Active threshold.