Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-01T00:13:33

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at mainly background levels, but some increase in electron counts is likely on days 1 and 2 (1st and 2nd), with slightly elevated winds to start as a result of recent CME arrival. However, any increased geomagnetic activity associated with a possible glancing blow from a further CME late on day 3 or early day 4 (3rd or 4th), or anticipated limited high speed stream connection on day 3 (3rd) would be expected to suppress counts again.

Fluence levels are likely to remain below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through this period, as suggested by latest REFM output, although a rising trend is likely, at least through days 1 and 2.