Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-02T00:30:08

High energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) are currently at mainly background levels, with brief increases to moderate values, with no significant increases expected on day 1. The high speed stream from coronal hole 16 on day 2 may then lead to an increase in values through days 3 and 4, perhaps reaching sustained moderate, occasionally high levels. However any increase is subject to potential CME arrivals on days 3 and 4, which may glance the Earth and lead to a disruption of the radiation belts.

Electron fluence values are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated fluence) threshold through much of the forecast period, with a rising trend possible through days 3 and 4.