Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-02T00:21:57

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed at GEO by GOES-16, is currently at background. However recent CME and fast wind enhancement is likely to have led to the outer Van Allen Belt becoming populated with electrons, and once current solar winds subside there is the potential for this to expand back outwards to encompass satellites at GEO. This is expected to result in Moderate to High flux levels being observed, although confidence is low. Any enhancement to observed electron flux is expected to generally persist through the period, only dropping out with any arrival of the fast wind of CH06, possible later on day 4 (5th).

The associated electron fluence forecast is therefore also very low confidence, as the potential for any Active period is dependent upon the magnitude of elevated electron flux observed once current solar wind enhancements decline. However there is a chance of Active fluence developing, mainly from day 2 onward, and if this does develop, it is likely to persist throughout. REFM is suggesting an increasing trend, however this is likely underestimated.