Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-04T00:03:14

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at background. Some increase in counts can be expected if connection with coronal hole 06/- occurs, although any enhancement is not expected to be particularly significant. This is likely to result in moderate levels developing, at least on diurnal peaks, between days 2 and 4 (5th to 7th), although confidence is low. 

The associated fluence forecast is likely to show a gradual upward trend following any weak coronal hole connection, however Active fluence levels are considered unlikely. This is hinted at by latest REFM output.