Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-09T00:35:34

The observed high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO is at Moderate to High levels, after the recent CME brought a period of elevated to strong solar winds. With wind speeds now down to near background levels, the high electron flux is expected to gradually decay through the next four days, however the speed of any decay is very low confidence.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is currently Active, and has trended slightly upwards during recent hours. Again, this is likely to gradually trend downwards during the next four days but the speed of this trend is low confidence. There remains a risk of fluence staying above the Active threshold throughout this period. REFM is signalling a fairly rapid downward trend over the next 3 days, which is likely to be too fast.