Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-16T00:30:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO has been varying between Background and High (greater than 1000 pfu) during the past few days, but dropped out late on the 15th due to enhanced solar winds, likely from the early arrival of the fast wind of CH19/-. Once these elevated conditions subside, Moderate to high flux levels are likely return, potentially becoming persistently High, although this is low confidence.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to rise later day 1, likely becoming Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) day 2 (17th), and then persisting thereafter. REFM currently doesn't take account of this recent solar wind enhancement, and should be disregarded, especially from the 17th onward.