Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-15T12:00:16

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to be at Background to Moderate levels initially. The arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 32 on day 1 (15th), has the potential to increase the flux by day 2 or 3 (16th or 17th) with persistently High flux possible by late day 2 or day 3 and perhaps also day 4 (17th), although confidence remains Low for this.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist well below the Active level on day 1, with a slight, but increasing chance of rising above by the end of day 3 and continuing into day 4. This is supported by REFM which maintains fluence below the Active threshold.